The near future

It is easier to make predictions about the near future, such as the next one or two years, than about five or ten years from now.

The further into the future a prediction goes, the more guesses it depends on. Any one of those guesses could turn out to be wrong.

Experts are often good at spotting what may change, but less accurate at predicting when. Self-driving cars are a good example. They were confidently described as only a few years away for more than a decade.